French Election 2022: the future of nuclear and hydrogen

In the final article of a three-part series covering the ongoing French elections, inspiratia analyses the effect that the two remaining candidates will have on the future of the country's established nuclear sector and its emerging hydrogen sector

The policy implications of the French elections for renewable energy and infrastructure depend on the widely diverging views of the two leading candidates - incumbent president Emmanuel Macron of the centrist En Marche party and opposition candidate Marine Le Pen of the far-right Rassemblement National.

With the second round of the election between Marcon and Le Pen due on Sunday 24 April [2022], inspiratia discusses the potential policy implications of both candidates' outlook and plans for renewable energy from a hydrogen and nuclear energy perspective.

The current state of nuclear in France

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on energy sales have highlighted energy security and independence vulnerabilities for Europe. The current situation makes it clear that Europe will have to adopt the idea of synergy between all low/zero-carbon energy sources to maintain energy security without a heavy reliance on Russian oil and gas.

Currently, France derives 70% of its electricity from nuclear energy and about 17% from recycled nuclear fuel. It is the largest net exporter of electricity due to its low cost of generation and gains over €3 billion (£2.49bn US$3.25bn) per year. A government policy under the previous Hollande administration had sought to reduce nuclear electricity generation to 50% by 2025 but delayed it to 2035; France currently has 56 operable reactors with a total capacity of 61,370MW and one under construction (Flamanville, Normandy) with a capacity of 1,630 MW.

President Macron recently unveiled plans for France's future energy strategy, including the relaunch of the country's nuclear programme, during a visit to Belfort. Macron has become a fervent supporter of nuclear energy despite promising in 2017 that he would reduce nuclear production down to 50% of the nation's electricity production.

Support for nuclear assured despite divergent energy strategies

Under a new term for President Macron, French energy firm EDF could build up to six new second-generation EPR2 reactors for an estimated €50 billion (£41.5bn US$54.2bn), with an option of eight more on the horizon, bringing the total to 14. Such an endeavour would boost France's hydrogen-from-nuclear potential.

Additionally, President Macron unveiled a plan supporting the development of small modular reactors (SMRs) with €1 billion (£0.83bn, US$1.08bn) over the next five years as part of the broader €30 billion (£24.9bn US$32.5bn) package.

Additionally, the sale of Alstom's energy asset to US General Electric when he was the economy minister has become a thorn. Opposition parties, especially France's Green Party, insinuate he is trying to atone for selling Alstom to GE in appalling conditions as a campaign stunt just before the election.

Presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, like most other right leaning politicians in France, backs nuclear as a vehicle used to steer France towards energy sovereignty. Like Macron, her energy strategy includes the construction of six new ERPs and to increase the lifespan of existing plants.

Marine Le Pen's pro nuclear energy strategy targets French energy autonomy without ruling out EU participation. Le Pen's energy strategy aims to reduce participation in the European energy market in which France must import large quantities of electricity in the winter months

Though both candidates support the revival of French nuclear energy, they come to this position from different perspectives. Much like the inclusion of new SMRs in the UK's recent energy security strategy, environmentalism, security, and national identity all play a part in these complex decisions. Regardless of the winner on 24 April, nuclear power will loom large in France for generations to come

France is well positioned to capitalise on trends towards green hydrogen 

France's share of hydrogen from renewable-energy-powered (RE) electrolysis is under 1%, while steam methane reforming accounts for 41%, with what remains being derived from the gasification of coal. The technical potential for RE-based electricity is high in France, estimated at more than 2,000 TWh/yr, of which around 1,500 TWh/yr is from onshore wind.

The French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME) launched a series of projects to encourage projects relating to hydrogen solutions between local and industrial providers. The goal of bringing government authorities and businesses is to spur hydrogen development at the local use, expanding its capacity through economies of scale. Although recently delayed, these projects should be an essential catalyst for French hydrogen moving forward.

Hydrogen from waste is still nascent in France; in February [2021], SUEZ and SIPPEREC joined forces to develop the first green hydrogen production solution on an Energy-from-Waste plant in Créteil, near Paris.

Candidates have divergent hydrogen strategies

The incumbent Emmanuel Macron has historically held a favourable view of renewable energy. President Macron has said France will become a leader in green hydrogen by 2030 in line with his long-term plan for reindustrialising France unveiled in October [2021] as part of a €30 billion (£24.9bn US$32.5bn) investment strategy. President Macron's five-year investment plan includes the construction of two mega factories to produce green hydrogen. Another aspect included in the plan is to put 5,000 hydrogen vehicles on the road and 100 refuelling stations by 2023.

On the other hand, Marine Le Pen, President Macron's leading opposition, has diverging views on renewable energy for France. Le Pen, who lost to Emmanuel Macron in the 2017 French presidential election runoff, has historically expressed negative views of renewable energy. In the past, she has expressed a desire to remove subsidies for wind and solar, prevent the construction of new wind farms and dismantle existing assets.

With Marine Le Pen against wind energy and President Macron in favour of wind energy, the outcome will also have ramifications for hydrogen. Macron's government currently plans to have 6.5 GW of electrolysis-derived hydrogen installed by 2030, and for 20-40% of the country's industrial hydrogen usage to be sourced from low-carbon processes. Achieving this target would require considerable contributions from new wind power.

The election outcome could boost or deter French hydrogen proliferation

Both candidates, though with different approaches, support nuclear proliferation. France currently targets to decrease emissions by 40% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. As stated previously, such targets will require synergies between various energy sources. Notwithstanding, nuclear could play a significant role in producing low carbon hydrogen. But whether this is labelled low-carbon hydrogen will depend on the semantics if France and nine other member states can convince the EU to mark nuclear power as low carbon or renewable energy.

A Macron win will favour both nuclear energy and renewable energy proliferation, which is a potential double win for hydrogen. A Le Pen win would be detrimental to renewable energy and would subtract from the potential hydrogen capacity from wind energy.

Furthermore, Marine le Pen is adamant about the continued use of nuclear power, preferring to transition to hydrogen-fuelled vehicles right away. According to her, this is in an attempt to focus on domestic hydrogen production, minimising the country's reliance on outsourcing the manufacture of EV batteries to China. With no clear polices in place regarding green hydrogen, and an openly hostile attitude towards other forms of renewable energy, Le Pen has been widely criticized for her plans to reverse years of progressive renewable energy innovations in France at a time when it is needed most.