US–Iran ceasefire: A short-lived de-risking window

The US has moved to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports as of 13 April, marking a shift from a fragile ceasefire to renewed escalation. The ceasefire, entered on 7 April between the US and Iran, marked a brief window of calm following nearly six weeks of hostilities that began on 28 February. While the truce brokered by Pakistan was intrinsically fragile, it triggered a sharp repricing across energy markets, showing to what extent geopolitical risk – rather than physical scarcity – had been driving prices.