Subsidy-free Renewables & Offshore Wind Summit: 2021 sneak peek
Ahead of the return of the flagship Subsidy Free Renewables and Offshore Wind summit tomorrow, inspiratia shares a sneak peek of the data and the discussions to come
In the next two days inspiratia will welcome over 30 leading market practitioners to its flagship Subsidy Free Renewables and Offshore Wind summit. The two-day conference promises a stimulating set of discussions on the present state of the renewables market, as well as the transformative trends of subsidy-free renewables and emerging sectors such as offshore and floating wind.
The inspiratia team has been working hard too, dissecting the market to draw up the most important trends within the global electricity market to debate, but also to see how the story is unfolding through data.
Global renewables deal flow
As of October 2021, more than US$12 billion (£8.74bn €10.33) has been accumulated in greenfield renewable deals that have reached financial close across offshore wind, onshore wind, and photovoltaics.
Global renewables greenfield deal flow by sector, 2013 – Oct 2021
Source: inspiratia | datalive
Although 2021's data only runs to October, there is a clear decline in deals closed, that can be partially attributed to the continued effects of the covid-19 pandemic. With 53 deals closed this year, the largest decrease has been seen in onshore wind.
For the first time, we have seen the number of greenfield solar PV deals outstrip onshore wind. Solar developments have been performing well globally, with a significant number of deals in Europe and North America as well as becoming ever more prevalent in emerging markets such as Latin America, and Africa.
Looking more closely at offshore wind sector which will be the focus of day two – Friday 29 October – the graph below tracks deal counts and total disclosed transaction volume between 2016 and 2021 in the offshore wind, floating wind, and offshore transmission sectors.
The turbulence of recent times did not seem to shake the offshore sector, which last year saw a record 44 deals close for a disclosed transaction volume of roughly US$ 35billion (£25.49bn €30.18bn). Looking at offshore wind in particular, 24 deals have already closed this year for a disclosed transaction volume of roughly US$9.5 billion (£6.92bn €8.19bn).
Global offshore wind deal flow by sub-sector, 2016 – Oct 2021
Source: inspiratia | datalive
PPA and Subsidy-free outlook
The global PPA market has grown substantially in the past five years. This recent period of growth has been seen across all regions of inspiratia's coverage, first driven by Europe, but edged out by North American PPAs as of 2020.
The observed downturn in deal count to October 2021 can also be seen here across all regions, although far less pronounced than in the case of greenfield renewable deals.
PPA market activity by region, 2014 – Oct 2021
Source: inspiratia
One substantial difference between the activity of 2020 and 2021 is the proportion of PPA deals that were completely subsidy free. Rising from just 13% of the market last year to 60% this year.
Looking ahead at the upcoming pipeline of offshore projects, a total of 7 auction rounds have been confirmed as commencing over the next year. These include four auction rounds in the USA, demonstrating the current Administration's strong renewable ambition.
The schedule of auctions is likely to expand throughout the decade, as will the subsequent pipeline of projects.
Upcoming offshore auctions
|
Country |
Auction Round/Name |
Commencement Date |
Capacity (GW) |
|
USA |
Northern and Central California Wind Farms |
November 2021 |
7 (est.) |
|
USA |
Gulf of Mexico Wind Farm |
Q4 2021 |
0.5 (est.) |
|
Norway |
Sorlige Nordsjo II |
Q2 2022 |
1 |
|
Taiwan |
Round 4 |
Q2 2022 |
2 |
|
USA |
Central Atlantic |
Q2 2022 |
n/a |
|
USA |
Oregon Wind Farm |
Q3 2022 |
n/a |
|
France |
Méditerranée 2022 Tender I (Floating) |
2022 |
0.25 |
Source: inspiratia
More of these developments will be explored in detail in inspiratia's Subsidy Free Renewables and Offshore Wind Summit 2021, in partnership with our sponsors AFRY, BayWa r.e., K2 Management, NordLB, DLA Piper and Pexapark. Learn more on the event and how to register here.
